NIC Notes

Insights in Seniors Housing & Care

By: Beth Mace  |  July 08, 2022

372,000 New Jobs Created in June; Jobless Rate Remained at a Low 3.6%

Economic Trends  |  Senior Housing  |  Workforce

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 372,000 in June 2022 and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%. The June increase was in line with the average monthly gain over the prior three months (383,000). Revisions subtracted 72,000 to total payrolls in the previous two months. The market consensus had been for a gain of 268,000. 

Nonfarm payrolls were still down by 524,000 or 0.3% from their pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Notably, private-sector employment has now recovered the net job losses due to the pandemic and is 140,000 higher than in February 2020, while government employment is 664,000 lower.

Employment in business and professional services is 880,000 higher than in February 2020, while manufacturing jobs have returned to its pre-pandemic level. However, employment in leisure and hospitality services are down by 1.3 million or 7.8% since February 2020, while jobs in social assistance which includes child day care services are 2.0% below their February 2020 level.

Employment in health care rose by 57,000 in June, including 8,000 new positions in nursing and residential care facilities. But jobs in health care remain 1.1% or 176,000 less than in February 2020.

2022 NIC Notes Blog Employment Civilian Unemployment June V2The report confirms that the labor market remains strong, despite inflationary pressures, waning consumer confidence, the war in Ukraine and on-going supply-chain pressures. Concerns about rising wage costs and inflation are also supported by this report, although wage pressures appear to be easing. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.10 in June to $32.08. This was a gain of 5.1% from year-earlier levels but was less than the 5.3% gain seen in May and the 5.5% gain seen in April. 

The report supports the Federal Reserve’s intention of continuing to raise interest rates further following the 1.5 percentage point hike in the fed funds rate that has already occurred so far this year. Another 0.75 percentage point hike is anticipated at the next FOMC meeting later this month.

In a separate survey conducted by the BLS, the jobless rate was 3.6% for the fourth month in a row. The jobless rate is only 0.1 percentage point above the pre-pandemic level of 3.5% seen in February 2020, and well below the 14.7% peak seen in April 2020. The number of persons unemployed was essentially unchanged at 5.9 million but was still above the 5.7-million-person level seen prior to the pandemic. 

Among the major worker groups, the June unemployment rates were 3.43% for adult women, adult men (3.3%), teenagers (11.0%), White (3.3%), Black (5.8%), Asian (3.0%), and Hispanic (4.3%).

2022 NIC Notes Blog Employment Change JuneThe labor force participation rate edged down 0.1 percentage point to 62.2% in June and was below the February 2020 level of 63.4%.

The June underemployment rate or the U-6 jobless rate was 6.7%, up from 7.1% in May 2022. This figure includes those who have quit looking for a job because they are discouraged about their prospects and people working part-time but desiring a full work week.

About Beth Mace

Beth Burnham Mace is the Chief Economist and Director of Outreach at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC). Prior to joining the staff at NIC, she served as a member of the NIC Board of Directors for 7 years and chaired NIC’s Research Committee. Ms. Mace was also a Director at AEW Capital Management and worked in the AEW Research Group for 17 years. While at AEW, Ms. Mace provided primary research support to the organization’s core and value-added investment strategies and provided research-related underwriting in acquisition activity and asset and portfolio management decisions. Prior to joining AEW in 1997, Ms. Mace spent ten years at Standard & Poor’s DRI/McGraw-Hill as the Director of the Regional Information Service with responsibility for developing forecasts of economic, demographic, and industry indicators for 314 major metropolitan areas in the U.S. Prior to working at DRI, she spent three years as a Regional Economist at the Crocker Bank in San Francisco. Ms. Mace has also worked at the National Commission on Air Quality, the Brookings Institution and Boston Edison. Ms. Mace is a member of the National Association of Business Economists (NABE), ULI’s Senior Housing Council, the Urban Land Institute and New England Women in Real Estate (NEWIRE/CREW). In 2014, she was appointed a fellow at the Homer Hoyt Institute and was awarded the title of a “Woman of Influence” in commercial real estate by Real Estate Forum Magazine and Globe Street. Ms. Mace is a graduate of Mount Holyoke College (B.A.) and the University of California (M.S.). She has also earned The Certified Business Economist™ (CBE), which is the certification in business economics and data analytics developed by NABE. The CBE documents a professional’s accomplishment, experience, abilities, and demonstrates mastery of the body of knowledge critical in the field of economics and data analytics.

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