NIC Notes

Insights in Seniors Housing & Care

By: Bill Kauffman  |  September 12, 2017

NIC Skilled Nursing Data: Key Takeaways from the Second-Quarter 2017 Report

Economic Trends  |  Regulatory Environment  |  Skilled Nursing

NIC has just released its second quarter 2017 Skilled Nursing Data Report, which includes key monthly data points from July 2012 through June 2017.

The current report is based on data collected monthly, but reported quarterly, from approximately 20 operators and 1,500 properties.  The data represents national, aggregate figures.  However, NIC plans to grow the data set, adding more operators and properties to produce state-level reports. NIC welcomes the participation of operators nationwide in this confidential data collection process. Participants will receive a free benchmark report every month for their contribution.

Here are the key takeaways from the report:

  1. At 81.7%, second quarter occupancy fell to its lowest point in the last five years and was 100 basis points below the first quarter rate of 82.7%. The year-over-year decline of 147 basis points was less than the prior year's decline of 162 basis points, but almost twice the year-over-year decline in 2015. Seasonality suggests that occupancy is often low in the second quarter, but in the last two years occupancy fell even further in the third and fourth quarters suggesting that occupancy may fall even further in the second half of 2017.
  2. Medicare patient day mix reached the lowest level in NIC’s five-year time series. Medicare patient day mix hit a new low at the end of the second quarter, falling 119 basis points from 13.9% in March to 12.7% in June. Since February of 2015, with the start of pressure on Medicare mix, it is down a significant 378 basis points from 16.5%. Year-over-year, it declined 88 basis points from 13.6%. Meanwhile, Medicare revenue per patient day (RPPD) has demonstrated relative stability through the first two quarters of 2017 oscillating between $512 and $513, compared to last year's lower levels reported in the first two quarters, ranging from $509 to $512.
  3. Medicaid mix continues to be near a five-year peak in the second quarter at 65.9%. Medicaid mix was only 10 basis points lower than the highest Medicaid mix which occurred in November 2016. Quarter-over-quarter, it was up 106 basis points and year-over-year it was up 91 basis points. Meanwhile, the Medicaid revenue per patient day (RPPD) rate continues to increase slowly, reaching its highest point in the second quarter at $201. For the last 12 months, the rate has hovered between $199 and $201, with the two highest RPPD rates both recorded in the second quarter.
  4. The decline in Managed Medicare revenue per patient day continued to decelerate in the second quarter, but the daily rate still reached its lowest rate since July 2012. Managed Medicare ended the second quarter at $437 per patient day. The quarter-over-quarter decline was less than $1 equating to a negative 0.2% drop. The year-over-year change was only $3, compared to a year ago, when the year-over-year change was $20. While the managed Medicare RPPD continues to decline, the annual rate of decline is approaching zero and is the smallest in the time-series at negative 0.7%.  Though not as high as levels reached in the first quarter 2017, managed Medicare patient day mix for each month in the second quarter was among the highest levels reached in the time series ending at 6.3%, which was up 51 basis points on a year-over-year basis.

NIC released its latest Skilled Nursing Data Report on September 14, 2017.  You can download the latest report and future reports here.


About Bill Kauffman

Senior Principal Bill Kauffman works with the research team in providing research and analysis in various areas including sales transactions and skilled nursing. He has lead roles in creating new and enhanced products and implementation of new processes. Prior to joining NIC he worked at Shelter Development in investing/acquiring, financing, and asset management for over $1 billion in assets. He also had key roles in the value creation and strategic planning and analysis for over 65 entities. He received his Bachelor of Business Administration in Finance from the College of Business and Economics at Radford University and his Master of Science in Finance from Loyola College in Maryland. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst Designation (CFA).

Connect with Bill Kauffman

Read More by Bill Kauffman