NIC Notes

Insights in Seniors Housing & Care

Article

By: Omar Zahraoui  |  January 05, 2023

Senior Housing Occupancy at 83%: Six Quarters of Uninterrupted Gains

Market Trends  |  NIC MAP Vision  |  Senior Housing

Senior Housing Occupied Stock Surpasses Pre-Pandemic Level and is Now at its Highest Level Since NIC Began Reporting the Data in 2005. 

According to quarterly NIC MAP® data released by NIC MAP Vision, demand, as measured by the change in occupied units, continued to largely outpace new supply in fourth quarter 2022, marking its seventh consecutive quarter of positive increases, with a net absorption gain from the prior quarter of more than 8,600 units, or 1.5% for the NIC MAP Primary Markets. From its pandemic low in the first quarter of 2021, senior housing occupied stock increased by about 52,200 units and is now above its pre-pandemic 1Q 2020 level. Notably, it took seven quarters to fully recover all the senior housing units vacated during the first four quarters of the pandemic. 

As a result of supply/demand trends, the all-occupancy rate for senior housing for the NIC MAP Primary Markets increased for the sixth consecutive quarter to 83.0% in the December 2022 reporting period, up 0.9 percentage point (pps) from the September 2022 reporting period on three-month rolling basis, with a small gain of 0.1pps from November 2022. From its time series low of 77.8% in June 2021 and after six quarters of positive momentum and consistency—the longest period of uninterrupted quarterly gains since 2012—occupancy increased by 5.2pps but remained 4.1pps below pre-pandemic March 2020 levels of 87.1%.  Exhibit-1

 

By Majority Property Type. At 85.2%, the all-occupancy rate for majority independent living (IL) properties for the NIC MAP Primary Markets increased 0.6pps from September 2022, with a gain of 0.2pps from November 2022. For majority assisted living properties (AL), the all-occupancy rate for the NIC MAP Primary Markets was up 1.1pps to 80.7% from September 2022. Occupancy for both independent living properties and assisted living properties remained 4.4pps and 3.9pps below March 2020 levels, respectively. 

Notably, the 4.5pps difference between occupancy for majority independent living properties and majority assisted living properties was the smallest since 2018.

The inventory of majority independent living properties for the NIC MAP Primary Markets increased by 1.7% or 5,822 units from year-earlier levels in the December 2022 reporting period. This was the largest annual growth in the last 12 months. AL inventory increased by 1.5% over this same period. 

All-occupancy increased or remained stable in 24 of the 31 Primary Markets for IL in the December 2022 reporting period compared with September 2022. At 84.9%, Denver saw the largest quarterly improvement in December 2022, up 2.3pps from September 2022. San Diego IL occupancy fell 1.1pps in December 2022 to 86.5%. San Diego had the second largest quarterly decline among the 31 NIC MAP Primary Markets. 

All-occupancy rose or remained stable in 29 of the 31 Primary Markets for AL in December 2022 compared with September 2022. At 78.6%, Pittsburgh occupancy saw the largest increase since September 2022 and gained 3.3pps quarter-to-quarter. San Francisco’s occupancy edged up from November 2022 but fell by 0.8pps from September 2022 to 82.5%. San Francisco had the largest quarterly decline among the Primary Markets. 

Keep track of the most timely comprehensive review of the sector’s market fundamentals and trends. The NIC Intra-Quarterly Snapshot monthly publication, available for complimentary download on our website, continues to provide a powerful and closely watched means to stay ahead of industry trends, even as senior housing markets sustain a fast pace of evolution and adaptation, amidst an apparent recovery.  

The January 2023 IQ Snapshot report will be released on nic.org on Thursday, February 9, 2023, at 4:30pm. 

Interested in learning more about NIC MAP Intra-Quarterly data? To learn more about NIC MAP Vision data, schedule a meeting with a product expert today. 

 

About Omar Zahraoui

Omar Zahraoui, Senior Data Analyst at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC), is a seniors housing research professional with expertise in providing quantitative analysis and insights on seniors housing & care market data; building new products and reporting capabilities, including dashboards and proformas for clients and internal stakeholders; and implementing new processes and data solutions. Prior to his current role, Zahraoui worked as a data analyst, at Calpine Corporation, supporting the development of new-business strategy initiatives, analyzing sales and financial data, and developing statistical modeling of consumers’ behaviors to drive business performance. Zahraoui holds a Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration with concentrations in Finance and Management, a Master in Corporate Finance from IAE Lyon School of Management at Jean Moulin Lyon III University in France, and a Master of Science in Management Information Systems and Data Analytics from Pace University.

Connect with Omar Zahraoui

Read More by Omar Zahraoui