NIC Notes

Insights in Seniors Housing & Care

By: Omar Zahraoui  |  July 08, 2022

Senior Housing Recovery Regained Pace in Second Quarter 2022

Market Trends  |  NIC MAP Vision

  • Senior housing occupied units vacated during the pandemic are on track for full recovery, across both the NIC MAP Primary Markets and the NIC MAP Secondary Markets.
  • Senior housing occupancy bouncing back but remains far below pre-pandemic March 2020 levels.
  • The senior housing market continued to experience a high acuity trend, with occupancy for majority assisted living properties recovering relatively fast compared with majority independent living properties.

According to just released quarterly NIC MAP Vision data, the recovery for senior housing regained pace in the second quarter of 2022 after the momentum weakened in the prior quarter due to the Omicron variant. The graphs below depict the recovery progress for senior housing demand and occupancy for both the NIC MAP Primary Markets (Primary Markets) and the NIC MAP Secondary Markets (Secondary Markets).

NIC MAP Primary Markets. Demand, as measured by the change in occupied units, largely outpaced new supply while marking its fifth consecutive quarter of positive increases, with a net absorption gain from the prior quarter of more than 8,600 units, or 1.6% for the Primary Markets. The improved demand dynamics in the second quarter of 2022 increased the share of senior housing units vacated during the pandemic that have been re-occupied to 78%, up 19pps from the prior quarter (59%).

The all-occupancy rate for senior housing for the Primary Markets increased to 81.4% in June 2022, up 0.9pps from March 2022, with a gain of 0.6pps in April 2022, 0.2pps in May 2022 and 0.1pps in June 2022. From its time series low of 78.0% one year ago in June 2021, occupancy increased by 3.4pps but remained 5.8pps below pre-pandemic March 2020 levels of 87.2%.

All-occupancy increased or remained stable in 26 of the 31 Primary Markets for senior housing in the June 2022 reporting period compared with March 2022.

NIC MAP Secondary Markets. Senior housing demand for the Secondary Markets also regained momentum in the second quarter of 2022, with a net absorption gain from the prior quarter of more than 4,500 units, or 1.5%. And now, the share of senior housing units vacated during the pandemic that have been re-occupied increased to 86%.

At 83.0%, the all-occupancy rate for senior housing for the Secondary Markets was up 0.8pps from March 2022 and 4.2pps from its nadir in June 2021, but still 4pps below March 2020 levels of 87.0%. Overall, senior housing occupancy for the Secondary Markets is bouncing back quicker, mainly due to a relatively balanced new supply.

All-occupancy increased or remained stable in 55 of the 68 Secondary Markets for senior housing in the June 2022 reporting period compared with March 2022.

Data highlights by majority property type. Occupancy for majority independent living and majority assisted living properties, inventory growth patterns, and select NIC MAP Primary markets’ performance along with analysis and insights from the NIC Analytics team, including myself and NIC Chief Economist, Beth Mace are provided in the complimentary NIC Intra-Quarterly Snapshot monthly publication, available for download on our website. The data underlying every Intra-Quarterly Snapshot report is available to NIC MAP Vision clients.

Intra Quarterly Snapshot Blog - Recovery Progress

Interested in learning more about NIC MAP Intra-Quarterly data? To learn more about NIC MAP Vision data, schedule a meeting with a product expert today.

About Omar Zahraoui

Omar Zahraoui, Senior Data Analyst at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC), is a seniors housing research professional with expertise in providing quantitative analysis and insights on seniors housing & care market data; building new products and reporting capabilities, including dashboards and proformas for clients and internal stakeholders; and implementing new processes and data solutions. Prior to his current role, Zahraoui worked as a data analyst, at Calpine Corporation, supporting the development of new-business strategy initiatives, analyzing sales and financial data, and developing statistical modeling of consumers’ behaviors to drive business performance. Zahraoui holds a Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration with concentrations in Finance and Management, a Master in Corporate Finance from IAE Lyon School of Management at Jean Moulin Lyon III University in France, and a Master of Science in Management Information Systems and Data Analytics from Pace University.

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