Insights in Seniors Housing & Care
The path to recovery is never a straight line. While the Delta variant has changed the narrative once again and reportedly affected move-in rates in some seniors housing properties, overall occupancy and demand seem to be experiencing positive momentum.
[Note: this blog was updated as of September 17, 2021 to reflect revised data.]
Seniors Housing Intra-Quarterly Occupancy
The recently released NIC Intra-Quarterly Snapshot report shows that the overall occupancy rate for seniors housing increased to 79.9% in the August 2021 reporting period (June-July-August 2021) for the NIC MAP Primary Markets on a three-month rolling basis, according to Intra-Quarterly NIC MAP Data, released by NIC MAP Vision. This was an eight-month high and placed the all-occupancy rate 1.2 percentage points above its record low of 78.7% in the June 2021 reporting period. Notably, it was 7.5 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level of 87.4%, however.
Exhibit 1 below shows that between the reporting periods of April 2020 and March 2021, seniors housing occupancy decreased across most of the NIC MAP 31 Primary Markets, if not all. However, and similar to the annual absorption trend depicted in Exhibit 1, the pattern reversed in April 2021, when seniors housing occupancy measured higher or stable compared with the prior month (reporting period) across most of the NIC MAP 31 Primary Markets.
Unexpectedly, the pattern changed in June 2021 but quickly skewed towards markets with increasing occupancy rates in July 2021. This change in June 2021 was largely due to new supply outstripping demand across some of the NIC MAP 31 Primary Markets. The most recent data show that in the August 2021 reporting period, occupancy increased or was unchanged in 27 of the 31 Primary Markets for seniors housing compared with July 2021, while only four markets saw a decrease in occupancy over the same period.
To learn more about inventory growth and how select NIC MAP metropolitan markets have performed in August 2021, download the August 2021 NIC Intra-Quarterly Snapshot Report.
Exhibit 1 – Seniors housing intra-quarterly occupancy distribution
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Omar Zahraoui, Principal at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC), is a seniors housing research professional with expertise in providing quantitative analysis and insights on seniors housing & care market data; building new products and reporting capabilities, including dashboards and proformas for clients and internal stakeholders; and implementing new processes and data solutions. Prior to his current role, Zahraoui worked as a data analyst, at Calpine Corporation, supporting the development of new-business strategy initiatives, analyzing sales and financial data, and developing statistical modeling of consumers’ behaviors to drive business performance. Zahraoui holds a Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration with concentrations in Finance and Management, a Master in Corporate Finance from IAE Lyon School of Management at Jean Moulin Lyon III University in France, and a Master of Science in Management Information Systems and Data Analytics from Pace University.
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