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Insights in Seniors Housing & Care

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By: Beth Mace  |  September 09, 2021

Seniors Housing Investment Returns Remain Weak in Second Quarter 2021

Market Trends  |  Seniors Housing

The total investment return for the seniors housing sector was a positive 0.54% in the second quarter of 2021. This marked the fourth consecutive quarterly gain after one quarter of negative returns in the second quarter of 2020 when total returns were negative 1.00%; that marked the first negative total return since 2012 and prior to that in 2009.

The income return in the second quarter was the same as in the first quarter, but at 0.78% it was the smallest quarterly gain on record as far back as 2003. The valuation (capital/appreciation) return fell 0.24%, the seventh consecutive quarterly decline. This contrasts with the NPI and apartments, where the valuation return turned positive in the fourth quarter and saw gains of 2.54% and 2.71%, respectively, in the second quarter of 2021. Many investors have reduced their appreciation expectations for seniors housing as the impact of the coronavirus has weighed heavily on their view of the sector. The valuation return is the change in value net of any capital expenditures incurred during the quarter.

The one-year valuation return for seniors housing was a positive 2.26%, the strongest annual return since the onset of the pandemic in the second quarter of 2020. The 2.26% total return compared favorably to retail (-1.32%) and hotel (-8.27%), but was smaller than the other major property types, including the overall NPI (7.37%). Meanwhile, the industrial sector enjoyed an eye-popping 22.98% appreciation return on a one-year basis.

Note that the performance measurement cited above for seniors housing reflects the returns of 149 seniors housing properties valued at $7.9 billion in the second quarter. This represents the highest property count and market value in the NCREIF time series for seniors housing.

 

NCREIF Annualized Total Returns June 2021

 

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About Beth Mace

Beth Burnham Mace is the Chief Economist and Director of Outreach at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC). Prior to joining the staff at NIC, she served as a member of the NIC Board of Directors for 7 years and chaired NIC’s Research Committee. Ms. Mace was also a Director at AEW Capital Management and worked in the AEW Research Group for 17 years. While at AEW, Ms. Mace provided primary research support to the organization’s core and value-added investment strategies and provided research-related underwriting in acquisition activity and asset and portfolio management decisions. Prior to joining AEW in 1997, Ms. Mace spent ten years at Standard & Poor’s DRI/McGraw-Hill as the Director of the Regional Information Service with responsibility for developing forecasts of economic, demographic, and industry indicators for 314 major metropolitan areas in the U.S. Prior to working at DRI, she spent three years as a Regional Economist at the Crocker Bank in San Francisco. Ms. Mace has also worked at the National Commission on Air Quality, the Brookings Institution and Boston Edison. Ms. Mace is a member of the National Association of Business Economists (NABE), ULI’s Senior Housing Council, the Urban Land Institute and New England Women in Real Estate (NEWIRE/CREW). In 2014, she was appointed a fellow at the Homer Hoyt Institute and was awarded the title of a “Woman of Influence” in commercial real estate by Real Estate Forum Magazine and Globe Street. Ms. Mace is a graduate of Mount Holyoke College (B.A.) and the University of California (M.S.). She has also earned The Certified Business Economist™ (CBE), which is the certification in business economics and data analytics developed by NABE. The CBE documents a professional’s accomplishment, experience, abilities, and demonstrates mastery of the body of knowledge critical in the field of economics and data analytics.

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