NIC Notes

Insights in Seniors Housing & Care

By: Beth Mace and Omar Zahraoui  |  June 06, 2022

Skilled Nursing – Keeping the Occupancy Recovery on Track

COVID-19  |  Market Trends  |  Skilled Nursing

A recent NIC Notes blog titled “Market Fundamentals Amid Challenging Time for Skilled Nursing” published by NIC Analytics, evaluated supply and demand dynamics for freestanding skilled nursing properties within the 31 NIC MAP Primary Markets (Primary Markets) aggregate since 2017, and examined property-level occupancy distribution to get a better understanding of how widespread the effects of the pandemic have been.

This analysis digs further and reviews how select individual skilled nursing markets are faring after two years of the pandemic.

Occupancy Loss and Recovery Varied by Market. During the height of the pandemic, the occupancy loss for freestanding skilled nursing properties across all the Primary Markets was mainly a function of a demand contraction. In fact, inventory across most of the Primary Markets remained somewhat stable over the period from 1Q 2020 to 1Q 2021.

Drilling down into metropolitan markets, Boston’s occupancy fell 17.8 percentage points (pps) from 88.7% in first quarter 2020 to 70.9% in third quarter 2020. As a result, occupied units in Boston fell by nearly 21% in the span of two quarters. This was the largest demand contraction and occupancy loss a market experienced in the first two quarters of the pandemic. New York also experienced a large drop in occupancy. In the early months of the pandemic, New York’s occupancy rate fell 13.4pps from 92.0% in the first quarter of 2020 to 78.6% in the third quarter of 2020.

 

Notably, all the Primary Markets experienced double-digit occupancy declines, except Dallas (negative 9.6pps) and Kansas City (negative 7.7pps). Additionally, none of the skilled nursing Primary Markets experienced significant inventory growth during the height of the pandemic. Therefore, the skilled nursing occupancy declines were mainly a function of demand contraction whereas the occupancy loss for the private pay senior housing sector was a function of both an increase in supply and a decrease in demand.

 

On the other hand, the occupancy recovery paths and timelines are also proving to be uneven across markets with select Primary Markets improving more rapidly than others. For example, Orlando is a market that experienced a relatively smaller drop in occupancy during the first year of the pandemic of 10.7pps, from 89.7% in the first quarter of 2020 to 79.0% in the first quarter of 2021. However, Orlando’s occupancy increased by 6.8pps during the second year of the pandemic and stood at 85.9% in the first quarter of 2022. This helped the market recover 64% of the occupancy loss in percentage points and pushed its occupancy ranking from thirteenth to first among the Primary Markets.

 

The exhibit below shows that occupancy across several markets is recovering relatively fast. These markets include Orlando, Phoenix, New York, and Boston. Notably, 17 of the 31 Primary Markets have recovered at least 30% of the occupancy loss in percentage points, although occupancy across some of these markets is still far below pre-pandemic levels.

 

While the occupancy improvements across most Primary Markets depict a very welcome positive trend and indicate light on the horizon, the uncertainty bands remain wide in terms of when occupancy rates for skilled nursing properties will return to pre-pandemic levels. A key question is whether obtaining a sustainable level of occupancy and revenue growth will be sufficient to grow NOI and recoup some of the losses associated with the severe downturn in occupancy rates, higher expenses associated with agency staffing, PPE and other costs, Medicare funding cuts, and underfunding of Medicaid reimbursement in many states. Other headwinds for NOI growth include staffing shortages that are effectively restricting admissions of residents into some skilled nursing properties, and broader inflationary effects associated with the pandemic.

For example, a few markets experienced prolonged occupancy pullbacks and the recovery has thus far been elusive. This is the case of Tampa where 1Q 2022 occupancy remained 14.3pps below pre-pandemic 1Q 2020 levels and shifted the market’s ranking among the Primary Markets from fifth to sixteenth. Similarly, Washington and Atlanta are markets that experienced prolonged occupancy declines and remained far below pre-pandemic levels.

We cannot yet know how pandemic-derived challenges will unfold in future months, or when they will be fully behind us, but the skilled nursing industry has weathered this extremely difficult period and begun the path to recovery.

Blog__exhibit


This analysis examined approximately 4,000 freestanding skilled nursing properties within the Primary Markets. Note that combined properties offering at least two types of service and life plan communities (LPCs)/continuing care retirement communities (CCRCs) were excluded from this analysis.

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About Beth Mace and Omar Zahraoui

Beth Burnham Mace is the Chief Economist and Director of Outreach at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC). Prior to joining the staff at NIC, she served as a member of the NIC Board of Directors for 7 years and chaired NIC’s Research Committee. Ms. Mace was also a Director at AEW Capital Management and worked in the AEW Research Group for 17 years. While at AEW, Ms. Mace provided primary research support to the organization’s core and value-added investment strategies and provided research-related underwriting in acquisition activity and asset and portfolio management decisions. Prior to joining AEW in 1997, Ms. Mace spent ten years at Standard & Poor’s DRI/McGraw-Hill as the Director of the Regional Information Service with responsibility for developing forecasts of economic, demographic, and industry indicators for 314 major metropolitan areas in the U.S. Prior to working at DRI, she spent three years as a Regional Economist at the Crocker Bank in San Francisco. Ms. Mace has also worked at the National Commission on Air Quality, the Brookings Institution and Boston Edison. Ms. Mace is a member of the National Association of Business Economists (NABE), ULI’s Senior Housing Council, the Urban Land Institute and New England Women in Real Estate (NEWIRE/CREW). In 2014, she was appointed a fellow at the Homer Hoyt Institute and was awarded the title of a “Woman of Influence” in commercial real estate by Real Estate Forum Magazine and Globe Street. Ms. Mace is a graduate of Mount Holyoke College (B.A.) and the University of California (M.S.). She has also earned The Certified Business Economist™ (CBE), which is the certification in business economics and data analytics developed by NABE. The CBE documents a professional’s accomplishment, experience, abilities, and demonstrates mastery of the body of knowledge critical in the field of economics and data analytics.

Omar Zahraoui, Senior Data Analyst at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC), is a seniors housing research professional with expertise in providing quantitative analysis and insights on seniors housing & care market data; building new products and reporting capabilities, including dashboards and proformas for clients and internal stakeholders; and implementing new processes and data solutions. Prior to his current role, Omar worked as a data analyst, at Calpine Corporation, supporting the development of new-business strategy initiatives, analyzing sales and financial data, and developing statistical modeling of consumers’ behaviors to drive business performance. Omar holds a Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration with concentrations in Finance and Management, a Master in Corporate Finance from IAE Lyon School of Management at Jean Moulin Lyon III University in France, and a Master of Science in Management Information Systems and Data Analytics from Pace University.

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