Of the 99 largest metropolitan markets that the NIC MAP® Data Service (NIC MAP) tracks across the nation, 11 are located in California. Within these metropolitan markets, NIC tracks 870 seniors housing properties with 101,000 units, or nearly 12% of the seniors housing units regularly followed within the 99 markets by NIC. By coincidence, this share is comparable to California’s 12% share of the total U.S. population (38.8 million people live in California versus 320 million in the U.S. as of 2015). Within the state, performance measurements vary considerably.
The preliminary 2016 third-quarter data is in, and it shows that transaction volume continues to slow down in 2016. Public buyers, mainly the public REITs, have led the slowdown, as cost of capital increased, and the number of transactions that suit their strategies declined. But on the private side, buyers continued to stay relatively active in the third quarter.
Buyer Type Activity in the Second Quarter As I described in Part I of this two-part series on transactions volume in the second quarter of 2016, the decrease in transactions volume was due to a decrease in all buyer types: the public type (any publicly-traded company), the private type (not publicly traded, such as a private REIT, single owner, or partnership), and the institutional type (equity funds that manage pension money or other types of institutional money).
The second quarter of 2016 marked a significant drop in volume for closed seniors housing and care property sales transactions. Volume in the second quarter registered $1.6 billion. That includes $1 billion in seniors housing and $600 million in nursing care. The total volume was down 61% from the previous quarter’s $4.3 billion and down 81% from the second quarter of 2015, when volume came in at $8.7 billion.