Investment returns for seniors housing historically have outpaced the overall NCREIF (National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries) Property Index (NPI), a property-level index that tracks investment return performance for commercial real estate. But while seniors housing returns outperformed the NPI in the third quarter of 2016, the total annual return for this sector has been slowly trending down since mid-2014.
In the last major release of employment conditions under the Obama Administration, the Labor Department reported on Friday that nonfarm payrolls increased by 156,000 positions in December. Marking the seventh year of economic expansion, 2.2 million jobs were generated in 2016, compared with 2.7 million in 2015. Hiring has averaged 180,000 new positions per month over the past 12 months. The December gain was below the 175,000 consensus projection. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up from 178,000 to 204,000 and the change for October was revised down from 142,000 to 135,000. With these revisions, employment gains in November and October combined were 19,000 higher than previously reported.
From a regulatory perspective, 2016 was certainly a busy year in seniors housing and care. From new bundled payment models to revised participation requirements, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) rolled out new guidance and rules at a rapid pace. With a new administration and a new leader at the helm of Health and Human Services (HHS, the agency under which CMS operates), 2017 could turn out as interesting as 2016. Here are the regulatory areas I'll be keeping my eye on in the next year.
The Southeast is a vibrant and expanding region of the U.S., both for job seekers and business owners. This region, which includes Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee, attracts older and younger people alike, who are drawn by the warmer climate, retirement destinations, business connections, cultural offerings, recreational opportunities, and broad-based growth potential.
In today’s blog post, I’ll give you a high-level look at the seniors housing market in the Southeast. For a deeper dive, be sure to check out the original article in the December/January edition of the NIC Insider Newsletter.
An estimated 14% of the U.S. population—some 45 million people—live in the Southeast. Its population historically has grown at a faster pace than the nation’s, expanding by 5.5% since 2010 compared to the national growth rate of 4.1% and accounting for 19% of the entire nation’s population growth. Projections from the U.S. Census Bureau suggest that this region of the country will continue to expand at a faster pace than the nation as a whole.
Last week, NIC released its fourth Skilled Nursing Data Report, which includes key monthly data points from October 2011 through September 2016. In this week’s blog post, we’ll highlight the main takeaways from the report.
Last week, NIC reached a highly anticipated milestone with the release of an intuitive, user-friendly interface for our NIC MAP® Data Service.
If you’re not familiar with NIC’s data service, NIC MAP is the premier provider of comprehensive market data for the seniors housing and care sector, with data from more than 14,000 properties within 140 U.S. metropolitan markets. Since it was established in 2004, NIC MAP has helped create transparency for seniors housing and care by offering accurate, unbiased, and actionable market-level data on the entire sector’s property types and care segments, including independent living, assisted living, memory care, and nursing care.
Data is quickly becoming a must-have for skilled nursing providers looking to shore up their post-acute business. Post-acute patients generally have high-acuity needs that result in higher daily reimbursements, usually by Medicare. As some hospitals and Medicare Advantage plans increasingly bear more financial risk for these patients, they will seek partnerships with providers that can demonstrate their ability to provide a high level of care and potentially avoid costly rehospitalizations. With the entry of other risk-bearing entities, such as accountable care organizations, into the marketplace, the need to demonstrate value will grow.
In the last major release of employment conditions prior to the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve on December 13 and 14, the Labor Department reported on Friday that nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000 positions in November. Hiring has now averaged 180,000 new positions per month over the past eleven months. The year-to-date average was down from average monthly gains of 229,000 in 2015. Nevertheless, since 2010, nearly 15 million jobs have been created. The November gain was on par with the 180,000 consensus projection. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised up from 191,000 to 208,000, and the change for October was revised down from 161,000 to 142,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 2,000 less than previously reported.
Setting business strategies for an unclear future continues to challenge many in seniors housing and care. It’s an issue that multiple sessions at the 2017 NIC Spring Investment Forum, March 22–24 in San Diego, CA, will address.
“It begins to sound like a broken record, but for years we’ve been anticipating this vast tidal wave of aging seniors,” said NIC CEO Bob Kramer. “That tidal wave is now nearly here, and time’s running out for everyone in seniors housing and care to put in place strategies to care for them efficiently, effectively, and profitably.”
Understanding the full value the industry has to offer seniors and stakeholders alike will be critical for operational success in the future, he said. “There’s additional value to be unlocked.”
Of the 99 largest metropolitan markets that the NIC MAP® Data Service (NIC MAP) tracks across the nation, 11 are located in California. Within these metropolitan markets, NIC tracks 870 seniors housing properties with 101,000 units, or nearly 12% of the seniors housing units regularly followed within the 99 markets by NIC. By coincidence, this share is comparable to California’s 12% share of the total U.S. population (38.8 million people live in California versus 320 million in the U.S. as of 2015). Within the state, performance measurements vary considerably.
In short, California is a state to watch when it comes to tracking the seniors housing market. Let’s take a closer look.