Experts Make the Case for Senior Housing In an uncertain economic environment, what’s an investor to do? That question was explored during two educational sessions at the 2022 NIC Fall Conference, held September 14-16, in Washington, D.C. At the session, “Why Now is a Good Time to Invest in Senior Housing,” experts mapped out the positive case for investment today, along with some timely caveats. Separately, in a lively session patterned after the popular TV game show, “Deal or No Deal,” lenders and investors took a deep dive into real transactions. The format highlighted the strategies of different investors, who revealed their “Deal or No Deal” decisions by opening a replica of the show’s iconic briefcase.
This article originally appeared in the “Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2023” report issued by the Urban Land Institute and PwC. Data cited in article as of original publish date; more current data may be available. Major factors influencing senior housing continue to evolve. Some trends are well known while others are still developing. In 2022 and into 2023, trends for senior housing include the following:
“Single-site operators and those with between two and nine properties were more likely to be considering product diversification, with single-site operators favoring lower acuity settings (36%) and those with between two and nine properties equally considering lower acuity (20%) and higher acuity settings (20%). With regards to expected changes to various care segments in their portfolio of properties, approximately half of respondents expect to increase the active adult (age 55+) and independent living care segments, while just under one-half (45% and 41%) anticipate increases in their assisted living and memory care segments. When asked about the contributing factors to the acceleration of move-outs, operators cite residents moving to higher levels of care as the leading cause (45%), followed by deaths (35%), resident and family member concerns (10%), natural disasters (5%), and current economic conditions (5%).”
The all-occupancy rate for senior housing for the NIC MAP Primary Markets increased to 82.8% in the October 2022 reporting period, up 0.6 percentage point (pps) from the September 2022 reporting period on three-month rolling basis, according to intra-quarterly NIC MAP® data, released by NIC MAP Vision. From its pandemic record low of 77.9% in June 2021, senior housing all-occupancy increased by 4.9pps and is now more than halfway in the road to recovery, with a gap of 4.4pps from the pre-pandemic March 2020 level of 87.2%.