NIC Notes

Insights in Seniors Housing & Care


By: Beth Mace  |  May 26, 2023

Asking Rate Growth Remains High: Key Takeaways from the 1Q2023 NIC MAP Vision Actual Rates Report

Actual Rates  |  Business Environment  |  NIC MAP Vision

Data from the recently released 1Q2023 NIC MAP Vision Actual Rates Report showed growth for asking rates was at near-record highs on a year-over-year basis for all three care segments (independent living, assisted living, and memory care) for the data contributors to this data collection. In the recently released report, monthly data of actual rates and leasing velocity are presented through March 2023, including data on rate discounting and move-in/move-out trends. Key takeaways from the report, specifically from the Segment Type report, are presented below. Care segments refer to the levels of care and services provided to a resident living in an assisted living, memory care or independent living unit. 

Key Takeaways

  • The year-over-year pace of growth in all rates for all care segments reached near record highs.
      • At 9.6% in March 2023, year-over-year asking rate growth for the independent living care segment was the strongest pace of the three rate categories. Separately, in-place rates were up by 7.5% from year-earlier levels, and initial or move-in rates were up by 8.2%. These were nearly the highest rates of growth in the time series for these rates, except for January 2022, when many rates rose with lease renewals and annual adjustments.
      • For assisted living, growth in initial rates was a very high 11.5% in February 2023, the largest year-over-year increase in the time series. March 2023 gains were also high at 8.7% from year-earlier levels. Asking rate growth topped 9.1% in March 2023.
      • Of the three tracked memory care rate categories (in-place, asking and initial/move-in), the fastest pace of growth occurred in asking rates, which were up by 9.1% from year-earlier levels in March 2023. In-place rates were up by 9.0% from year-earlier levels in March 2023 and initial rates were up by 7.4%. 
  • Discounts are highest in the independent living care segment.
      • Discounts between asking rates and move-in rates (initial rates) within the independent living segment have hovered between 1.0 months and 1.3 months on an annualized basis since February 2022 and were the equivalent of $383 (1.2 months) in March 2023. Compared with asking rates, in-place rates had a 0.6 month annualized equivalent discount. This is higher than the historic average of 0.2 of a month.
  • The pace of move-ins generally strengthened in the early months of 2023 for assisted living, and memory care.
      • Move-ins for assisted living segments averaged 3.6% of inventory in March 2023, among the strongest months since September 2021. At its lowest point in the early months of the pandemic, move-ins averaged 1.1% of inventory in April 2020 before accelerating to a high rate of 3.9% in June 2021.  

Move Ins vs Move Outs National Assisted Living Segment

Additional key takeaways are available to NIC MAP Vision subscribers in the full report.

NIC MAP Vision continues to work to onboard new data contributors and is dedicated to reporting more metros. It is only with the support of Actual Rates data contributors and officially certified Actual Rates software partners that expanded metro-level reporting is now available. For more information on which metropolitan markets are now available to NIC MAP Vision subscribers, please contact a product expert at NIC MAP Vision today

About the Report

The NIC MAP Vision Seniors Housing Actual Rates Report provides aggregate national data from approximately 300,000 units within more than 2,700 properties across the U.S. operated by 35 to 40 senior housing providers. The operators included in the current sample tend to be larger, professionally managed, and investment-grade operators as we currently require participating operators to manage 5 or more properties. Note that this monthly time series is comprised of end-of-month data for each respective month, and that the set of properties included in each month’s data set is subject to change. The sample is not “same store,” and occupancy is inclusive of newly opened properties in lease-up. NIC MAP Vision is working on including same-store rate metrics in a future release.

Interested in Participating?

The Actual Rates Data Initiative is an effort to expand senior housing data and we are looking for operators who have five or more properties to participate. NIC MAP Vision has expertise in extracting data from industry leading software systems, such as Yardi, PointClickCare, Alis, MatrixCare, Glennis Solutions, Vitals, Move-N, and Eldermark and can facilitate the process for you. 

Operators contributing data to the actual rates report receive a complimentary report which allows them to compare their own data against national, and metropolitan market benchmarks.

In addition to receiving a complimentary report, your organization benefits through:

  • More informed benchmarking, strategic planning, and day-to-day business operations,
  • Increased transparency, aligning with other commercial real estate assets in terms of data availability,
  • Saved time, Actual Rates data is collected electronically directly from operators’ corporate offices, removing the need for telephone calls to individual properties, and
  • Enhanced investment and efficiency across the sector.

Visit NIC Map Vision's website for more information.

About Beth Mace

Beth Burnham Mace is a special advisor to the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC) focused exclusively on monitoring and reporting changes in capital markets impacting senior housing and care investments and operations. Mace served as Chief Economist and Director of Research and Analytics during her nine-year tenure on NIC’s leadership team. Before joining the NIC staff in 2014, Mace served on the NIC Board of Directors and chaired its Research Committee. She was also a director at AEW Capital Management and worked in the AEW Research Group for 17 years. Prior to joining AEW, Mace spent 10 years at Standard & Poor’s DRI/McGraw-Hill as director of its Regional Information Service. She also worked as a regional economist at Crocker Bank, and for the National Commission on Air Quality, the Brookings Institution, and Boston Edison. Mace is currently a member of the Institutional Real Estate Americas Editorial Advisory Board. In 2020, Mace was inducted into the McKnight’s Women of Distinction Hall of Honor. In 2014, she was appointed a fellow at the Homer Hoyt Institute and was awarded the title of a “Woman of Influence” in commercial real estate by Real Estate Forum Magazine and Globe Street. Mace earned an undergraduate degree from Mount Holyoke College and a master’s degree from the University of California. She also earned a Certified Business Economist™ designation from the National Association of Business Economists.

Connect with Beth Mace

Read More by Beth Mace