Data from the recently released 1Q2023 NIC MAP Vision Actual Rates Report showed growth for asking rates was at near-record highs on a year-over-year basis for all three care segments (independent living, assisted living, and memory care) for the data contributors to this data collection. In the recently released report, monthly data of actual rates and leasing velocity are presented through March 2023, including data on rate discounting and move-in/move-out trends. Key takeaways from the report, specifically from the Segment Type report, are presented below. Care segments refer to the levels of care and services provided to a resident living in an assisted living, memory care or independent living unit.
- The year-over-year pace of growth in all rates for all care segments reached near record highs.
- At 9.6% in March 2023, year-over-year asking rate growth for the independent living care segment was the strongest pace of the three rate categories. Separately, in-place rates were up by 7.5% from year-earlier levels, and initial or move-in rates were up by 8.2%. These were nearly the highest rates of growth in the time series for these rates, except for January 2022, when many rates rose with lease renewals and annual adjustments.
- For assisted living, growth in initial rates was a very high 11.5% in February 2023, the largest year-over-year increase in the time series. March 2023 gains were also high at 8.7% from year-earlier levels. Asking rate growth topped 9.1% in March 2023.
- Of the three tracked memory care rate categories (in-place, asking and initial/move-in), the fastest pace of growth occurred in asking rates, which were up by 9.1% from year-earlier levels in March 2023. In-place rates were up by 9.0% from year-earlier levels in March 2023 and initial rates were up by 7.4%.
- Discounts are highest in the independent living care segment.
- Discounts between asking rates and move-in rates (initial rates) within the independent living segment have hovered between 1.0 months and 1.3 months on an annualized basis since February 2022 and were the equivalent of $383 (1.2 months) in March 2023. Compared with asking rates, in-place rates had a 0.6 month annualized equivalent discount. This is higher than the historic average of 0.2 of a month.
- The pace of move-ins generally strengthened in the early months of 2023 for assisted living, and memory care.
- Move-ins for assisted living segments averaged 3.6% of inventory in March 2023, among the strongest months since September 2021. At its lowest point in the early months of the pandemic, move-ins averaged 1.1% of inventory in April 2020 before accelerating to a high rate of 3.9% in June 2021.
Additional key takeaways are available to NIC MAP Vision subscribers in the full report.
NIC MAP Vision continues to work to onboard new data contributors and is dedicated to reporting more metros. It is only with the support of Actual Rates data contributors and officially certified Actual Rates software partners that expanded metro-level reporting is now available. For more information on which metropolitan markets are now available to NIC MAP Vision subscribers, please contact a product expert at NIC MAP Vision today.
About the Report
The NIC MAP Vision Seniors Housing Actual Rates Report provides aggregate national data from approximately 300,000 units within more than 2,700 properties across the U.S. operated by 35 to 40 senior housing providers. The operators included in the current sample tend to be larger, professionally managed, and investment-grade operators as we currently require participating operators to manage 5 or more properties. Note that this monthly time series is comprised of end-of-month data for each respective month, and that the set of properties included in each month’s data set is subject to change. The sample is not “same store,” and occupancy is inclusive of newly opened properties in lease-up. NIC MAP Vision is working on including same-store rate metrics in a future release.
Interested in Participating?
The Actual Rates Data Initiative is an effort to expand senior housing data and we are looking for operators who have five or more properties to participate. NIC MAP Vision has expertise in extracting data from industry leading software systems, such as Yardi, PointClickCare, Alis, MatrixCare, Glennis Solutions, Vitals, Move-N, and Eldermark and can facilitate the process for you.
Operators contributing data to the actual rates report receive a complimentary report which allows them to compare their own data against national, and metropolitan market benchmarks.
In addition to receiving a complimentary report, your organization benefits through:
- More informed benchmarking, strategic planning, and day-to-day business operations,
- Increased transparency, aligning with other commercial real estate assets in terms of data availability,
- Saved time, Actual Rates data is collected electronically directly from operators’ corporate offices, removing the need for telephone calls to individual properties, and
- Enhanced investment and efficiency across the sector.
Visit NIC Map Vision's website for more information.
About Beth Mace
Beth Burnham Mace is the Chief Economist and Director of Outreach at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC). Prior to joining the staff at NIC, she served as a member of the NIC Board of Directors for 7 years and chaired NIC’s Research Committee. Ms. Mace was also a Director at AEW Capital Management and worked in the AEW Research Group for 17 years. While at AEW, Ms. Mace provided primary research support to the organization’s core and value-added investment strategies and provided research-related underwriting in acquisition activity and asset and portfolio management decisions. Prior to joining AEW in 1997, Ms. Mace spent ten years at Standard & Poor’s DRI/McGraw-Hill as the Director of the Regional Information Service with responsibility for developing forecasts of economic, demographic, and industry indicators for 314 major metropolitan areas in the U.S. Prior to working at DRI, she spent three years as a Regional Economist at the Crocker Bank in San Francisco. Ms. Mace has also worked at the National Commission on Air Quality, the Brookings Institution and Boston Edison. Ms. Mace is a member of the National Association of Business Economists (NABE), ULI’s Senior Housing Council, the Urban Land Institute and New England Women in Real Estate (NEWIRE/CREW). In 2014, she was appointed a fellow at the Homer Hoyt Institute and was awarded the title of a “Woman of Influence” in commercial real estate by Real Estate Forum Magazine and Globe Street. Ms. Mace is a graduate of Mount Holyoke College (B.A.) and the University of California (M.S.). She has also earned The Certified Business Economist™ (CBE), which is the certification in business economics and data analytics developed by NABE. The CBE documents a professional’s accomplishment, experience, abilities, and demonstrates mastery of the body of knowledge critical in the field of economics and data analytics.
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