“Executive Survey Insights results suggest that the seniors housing and care market fundamentals may have reached a turning point at the end of March 2021. According to survey respondents, leads volume continues to grow and the shares of organizations reporting accelerations in move-ins continues to trend positively. These leading indicators have been translating into higher occupancy rates since the Wave 25 survey, conducted in the latter half of March.”
The NIC MAP® Data Service, powered by NIC MAP Vision, an affiliate of NIC, tracks occupancy, asking rents, demand, inventory, and construction data for independent living, assisted living, memory care, skilled nursing, and continuing care retirement communities (CCRCs—also referred to as life plan communities) for more than 15,000 properties across 140 metropolitan areas. NIC MAP data currently tracks 1,208 not-for-profit and for-profit entrance fee and rental CCRCs in these 140 combined markets (1,134 in the 99 combined Primary and Secondary Markets).
“Are we beginning to see signs of an upward inflection point in occupancy? The market fundamentals data continue trending positively as seen in the most recent ESI results. Between 40% and 57% of organizations reported upward changes in occupancy depending on care segment. This is especially the case for nursing care. The survey shows a clear trend of 50% or more organizations with nursing care beds reporting occupancy rate increases for six consecutive waves of survey data (collected between February 8 and May 2), without notable increases in the pace of move-outs. Moreover, data compiled in NIC’s Skilled Nursing COVID-19 Tracker clearly shows that COVID-19 cases in skilled nursing communities have fallen dramatically and at a faster pace than the broader population since the launch dates of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines in long-term care settings in late December. These results are further substantiated by an increase, albeit modest, in February skilled nursing occupancy statistics as reported in NIC’s May Skilled Nursing Data Report.” –Lana Peck, Senior Principal, NIC
“The market fundamentals in the Wave 26 Executive Insights survey data through mid-April show signals of headway. Leads volume is up and the shares of organizations reporting accelerations in move-ins continues to trend positively with each of the care segments reaching new high points in the survey time series. Exactly when these leading indicators will translate into higher occupancy rates being reported across the sector is yet to be seen.”