NIC Notes

Insights in Seniors Housing & Care

By: Beth Burnham Mace  |  July 20, 2016

An Important Milestone Reached

Economic Trends  |  Market Trends  |  Seniors Housing

The second quarter 2016 data release marks another milestone for NIC and the NIC MAP® Data Service. With this release, we’re excited to officially launch our coverage of 41 additional metropolitan markets. The Additional Markets expand NIC MAP’s coverage from 99 to a total 140 metropolitan markets. Approximately 71% of U.S. households headed by someone age 75 and older are situated in these 140 markets.

In keeping with NIC’s mission, this expanded market coverage further improves the transparency of the seniors housing and care property market. By monitoring these data over time, investors, developers, and operators of seniors housing properties can determine how fast the seniors housing market’s inventory is expanding, track occupancies and absorption rates, and make informed investment decisions.

NIC MAP’s coverage now includes more than 14,400 seniors housing and care properties and more than 1.8 million units. With the additional markets, NIC MAP’s coverage expands by approximately 600 properties and 72,000 units. The 41 additional metropolitan markets include both:

  • Markets that are contiguous to currently covered markets (such as Durham, NC; Naples, FL; and Santa Rosa, CA).
  • Markets that have been requested frequently by clients (such as Honolulu, HI; Lexington, KY; and Winston-Salem, NC).

Because we commenced our quarterly surveying of these additional markets in early 2015, MAP clients have five quarters of historical data on the new markets, which allows year-over-year comparisons.

NIC_MAP_Regional_Coverage_2016.png

About the New Markets

These new markets comprise a new NIC MAP national aggregate referenced as simply “Additional Markets” and are in addition to the existing 99 Primary and Secondary Markets national aggregates. While the new markets qualify as Secondary Markets, their shorter historical data time series means they will not be rolled into the existing Secondary Markets national aggregate at this time.

NIC_MAP_Markets.png

Select 2Q16 key metrics for the Additional Markets national aggregate include:

  • Occupancy of 89.4% (compared with 89.7% for the Primary and Secondary Markets aggregate).
  • Average Monthly Rent (AMR) of $3,602 (compared with $3,594 for the Primary and Secondary Markets aggregate).
  • Annual Rent Growth of 3.5% (compared with 3.0% for the Primary and Secondary Markets aggregate).
  • Construction Rate (as a percent of existing inventory) of 4.0% (compared with 5.8% for the Primary and Secondary Markets aggregate).

Among the Additional Markets, some select market comparisons include:

  • Higher occupied markets: Boulder, CO; Port St. Lucie, FL; Santa Rosa, CA; Lebanon, PA; Ann Arbor, MI; Spokane, WA; and Utica, NY. 
  • Lower occupied markets:  Lansing, MI; Asheville, NC; Winston-Salem, NC; Provo, UT; and Naples, FL.
  • Most construction as a share of existing inventory:  Asheville, NC; Trenton, NJ; Santa Rosa, CA; Racine, WI; and Honolulu, HI.
  • Least construction as a share of existing inventory:  Ann Arbor, MI; Burlington, NC; Durham, NC; Provo, UT; Reading, PA; and Spokane, WA.
  • Faster rent growth:  Napa, CA; Port St. Lucie, FL; Norwich, CT; Punta Gorda, FL; Boulder, CO; and Lansing, MI.
  • Slower rent growth:  Lebanon, PA; Sebastian, FL; Reading, PA; and Flint, MI.

NIC is excited to offer these additional data points to NIC MAP clients. We anticipate that capital providers, developers, and operators will benefit greatly from this expansion.

Learn More at the 2016 NIC Fall Conference

Attend the "Double Your Knowledge About Current Markets" session at the 2016 NIC Fall Conference in Washington, DC, September 14–16, for an overview on the most recent NIC Seniors Housing Bluebook report and information about NIC MAP's data initiatives.