The Labor Department reported that there were 201,000 jobs created in the U.S. economy in August, above the consensus expectation of 190,000. However, revisions subtracted 50,000 to the prior two months as June was revised to 208,000 from 224,000 and July was revised to 147,000 from 157,000. Payrolls have averaged 207,000 per month so far this year, up from 182,000 last year.
The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9% in August and was down from 4.4% one year ago. The jobless rate remains well below the rate of what is generally believed to be the “natural rate of unemployment” of 4.5% and continues to suggest that there will be growing upward pressure on wage rates. The jobless rate is calculated from a different survey than the survey used to calculate the number of new jobs (the household versus the establishment survey, respectively). Among major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult men was 3.5%, adult women 3.6% and teenagers 12.8%.
A broader measure of unemployment, which includes those who are working part time but would prefer full-time jobs and those that they have given up searching—the U-6 unemployment rate—fell to 7.4% in August from 7.5% in July and was down from 8.6% in August 2017. Last month’s U-6 rate was a 17-year low.
In August, employment in health care rose by 33,000. In the past year, health care has added 301,000 jobs.
The labor force participation rate, which is a measure of the share of working age people who are employed or looking for work fell 0.2 percentage points to 62.7%, near its cyclical low of 62.5% in October 2015. The low rate at least partially reflecting the effects of an aging population.
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose in August by ten cents to $27.16. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 77 cents, or 2.9%. This was a nine-year high. Last year, they averaged 2.6%.
The August jobs report and the acceleration in average hourly earnings will provide further support for increases in interest rates through 2018 by the Federal Reserve. As widely expected, the Fed increased the fed funds rate by 25 basis points at its June FOMC meeting, the second increase in 2018. The Fed has raised rates by a quarter percentage point seven times since late 2015, and most recently to a range between 1.75% and 2.00%, after keeping them near zero for seven years. The June projections by the Fed now show a total of four increases in the fed funds rate are anticipated in 2018 (two of which have already occurred), up from an earlier expectation of three. This would bring the benchmark rate to a range of 2.25% to 2.5% by year end. The Federal Reserve also upgraded its view of the economy by substituting the word “strong” for “solid” in the statement that policy makers released after its meeting. Further increases in the fed funds rate are anticipated in 2019. Their projection for the fed funds rate in 2020 is 3.4%. Hence, it is likely that there will be another 25-basis point increase announced by the Fed at its September meeting in two weeks and another one at its December FOMC meetings.
About Beth Mace
Beth Burnham Mace is the Chief Economist and Director of Outreach at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC). Prior to joining the staff at NIC, she served as a member of the NIC Board of Directors for 7 years and chaired NIC’s Research Committee. Ms. Mace was also a Director at AEW Capital Management and worked in the AEW Research Group for 17 years. While at AEW, Ms. Mace provided primary research support to the organization’s core and value-added investment strategies and provided research-related underwriting in acquisition activity and asset and portfolio management decisions. Prior to joining AEW in 1997, Ms. Mace spent ten years at Standard & Poor’s DRI/McGraw-Hill as the Director of the Regional Information Service with responsibility for developing forecasts of economic, demographic, and industry indicators for 314 major metropolitan areas in the U.S. Prior to working at DRI, she spent three years as a Regional Economist at the Crocker Bank in San Francisco. Ms. Mace has also worked at the National Commission on Air Quality, the Brookings Institution and Boston Edison. Ms. Mace is a member of the National Association of Business Economists (NABE), ULI’s Senior Housing Council, the Urban Land Institute and New England Women in Real Estate (NEWIRE/CREW). In 2014, she was appointed a fellow at the Homer Hoyt Institute and was awarded the title of a “Woman of Influence” in commercial real estate by Real Estate Forum Magazine and Globe Street. Ms. Mace is a graduate of Mount Holyoke College (B.A.) and the University of California (M.S.). She has also earned The Certified Business Economist™ (CBE), which is the certification in business economics and data analytics developed by NABE. The CBE documents a professional’s accomplishment, experience, abilities, and demonstrates mastery of the body of knowledge critical in the field of economics and data analytics.
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