NIC Notes

Insights in Seniors Housing & Care


By: Lisa McCracken  |  January 02, 2024

How Much Future Senior Housing Inventory is Needed to Meet Demographic Demand?

Market Trends  |  NIC MAP Vision  |  Senior Housing

We are all well-aware of the demographic trends unfolding in the U.S. In 2025, the first Baby Boomers will turn 80. Are we prepared for the implications of the aging population and is there enough supply to meet the demand for senior housing & care in the years ahead? Calculations by NIC MAP Vision project the need for an additional 200,000 senior housing units by 2025.


To maintain the current market penetration rates in the senior housing sector, we will need significant near-term growth in the senior housing inventory. When looking at current penetration rates among the 80+ age group, NIC MAP data predicts a need for 156,000 additional senior housing units by 2025, 549,000 additional units by 2028, and 806,000 additional units by 2030. With record-low construction starts observed in 2023, the projected gap between available and needed senior housing units will be significant. Whether looking at the 75+ or 80+ population, this pattern emerges.  

When looking at the amount of capital that will be needed to support this population growth in inventory, by 2030, an industry-wide investment of $400 billion will be needed to complete the required new development to meet the anticipated demand. Given the current pace of new development, it is estimated that only 40% of that investment need is currently on-pace to be fulfilled.  

To read the full report and understand peak years for projected demand and specifics on anticipated inventory shortfalls, visit the NIC MAP Vision blog here 


About Lisa McCracken

Lisa McCracken, Head of Research & Analytics at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC), oversees NIC’s research and analytics team, which develops actionable, data-driven insights on industry challenges and opportunities and showcases practical examples of how organizations nationwide are embracing opportunities to meet the demands of a changing marketplace. Additionally, Lisa oversees a robust research agenda with nationally recognized partners to help the next generation of senior housing and care leaders address evolving and dramatically different consumer preferences and needs. Prior to joining NIC, Lisa served as director of senior living research and development with Ziegler, a leading investment bank for senior housing and care, where she oversaw research staff supporting the senior living, senior housing, and related corporate finance healthcare practices. Lisa began her career as a research analyst at Holleran, a healthcare and aging services research and consulting firm, where she was successively promoted to become vice president of research, managing partner and ultimately president between 2009 and 2013. She is a nationally recognized thought leader and public speaker and has been the lead researcher on a number of national research studies such as the LeadingAge Ziegler 200 and other industry-wide publications.

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