NIC Notes

Insights in Seniors Housing & Care

By: Omar Zahraoui  |  December 15, 2023

Key Takeaways from Third Quarter 2023 NIC MAP Vision Actual Rates Report

Actual Rates  |  Market Trends  |  NIC MAP Vision  |  Senior Housing

Data from the recently released 3Q 2023 NIC MAP Vision Actual Rates Report showed that the pace of growth in all rates for all care segments (independent living, assisted living, and memory care) maintained near record highs observed since the onset of 2023 for the data contributors to this data collection. In the recently released report, monthly data of actual rates and leasing velocity are presented through September 2023, including data on rate discounting and move-in/move-out trends. Key takeaways from the report, specifically from the Segment Type report, are presented below. Care segments refer to the levels of care and services provided to a resident living in an assisted living, memory care or independent living unit.  

The year-over-year pace of growth in all rates for all care segments maintained near record highs observed since the onset of 2023.

  • For the independent living care segment, the third quarter continued to show growth in all rates with an 8.0% year-over-year increase in asking rates and a 9.2% increase in in-place rates in September 2023. Throughout the third quarter, the initial rate held fairly steady around the $3,500 mark, but slightly below what was observed in the second quarter of 2023. Despite this slight dip in July, August and September, the September 2023 initial rate was 5.2% above year-earlier level.
  • The assisted living care segment experienced similar or slightly lower year-over-year increases compared to independent living. The third quarter ended with a 7.9% year-over-year increase in September 2023 in both asking rates and in-place rates, which stood at $6,190 and $6,004, respectively. The initial rate for assisted living also grew compared to one year ago, increasing by 5.4%, a figure fairly similar to what was observed for independent living.
  • The memory care segment showed the largest year-over-year increase in initial rate among the three care segments, with 7.2% in September 2023.



Discounts for the third quarter were greatest within the independent living segment.

  • When comparing the asking rate to the initial rate for the independent living segment, on average during the third quarter, discounts were roughly 12% off the asking rate, equivalent to 1.5 months on an annualized basis. This compares to an average discount of 8% for the assisted living segment (1 month) and 9% for the memory care segment (1.1 months).

The pace of move-ins continues to outpace move-outs across all segment types, bolstering ongoing occupancy recovery.

  • The pace of move-ins for the independent living segment for each month of the third quarter averaged around 2.5%. During the month of August, the move-in percentage was 2.7%, the highest percentage since July of 2021. The percentage of move-outs across the third quarter hovered between 1.9-2.0%, the lowest rates observed since early/mid-2022. The pace of independent living move-ins to move-outs during the third quarter was greatest across all of the care segments.
  • The percentage of third-quarter move-ins for assisted living maintained a fairly similar percentage as much of 2023, averaging 3.4%. This contrasts with an average pace of move-outs of 2.9%. The gap between the move-ins and move-outs, with 0.5pps on average during the third quarter, is the greatest positive gap since early/mid 2022.
  • The memory care segment showed a similar average positive gap of 0.5pps between move-ins and move-outs during the third quarter. The move-in and move-out percentages (3.6% and 3.2% on average, respectively) for the third quarter. It should be noted, however, that for the third quarter, the move-in percentages were among the lowest observed thus far in 2023. Similarly, the move-out percentages for the third quarter were among the lowest recorded since the second quarter of 2022.

Additional key takeaways are available to NIC MAP Vision subscribers in the full report. 

NIC MAP Vision continues to work to onboard new data contributors and is dedicated to reporting more metros. It is only with the support of Actual Rates data contributors and officially certified Actual Rates software partners that expanded metro-level reporting is now available. For more information on which metropolitan markets are now available to NIC MAP Vision subscribers, please contact a product expert at NIC MAP Vision today.  

About the Report 

The NIC MAP Vision Seniors Housing Actual Rates Report provides aggregate national data from approximately 300,000 units within more than 2,700 properties across the U.S. operated by 35 to 40 senior housing providers. The operators included in the current sample tend to be larger, professionally managed, and investment-grade operators as we currently require participating operators to manage 5 or more properties. Note that this monthly time series is comprised of end-of-month data for each respective month, and that the set of properties included in each month’s data set is subject to change. The sample is not “same store,” and occupancy is inclusive of newly opened properties in lease-up. NIC MAP Vision is working on including same-store rate metrics in a future release. 

Interested in Participating? 

The Actual Rates Data Initiative is an effort to expand senior housing data and we are looking for operators who have five or more properties to participate. NIC MAP Vision has expertise in extracting data from industry leading software systems, such as Yardi, PointClickCare, Alis, MatrixCare, Aline, Vitals, Move-N, and Eldermark and can facilitate the process for you.  

Operators contributing data to the actual rates report receive a complimentary report which allows them to compare their own data against national and metropolitan market benchmarks. In addition to receiving a complimentary report, your organization benefits through: 

  • More informed benchmarking, strategic planning, and day-to-day business operations, 
  • Increased transparency, aligning with other commercial real estate assets in terms of data availability,
  • Saved time, Actual Rates data is collected electronically directly from operators’ corporate offices, removing the need for telephone calls to individual properties, and 
  • Enhanced investment and efficiency across the sector. 

Visit NIC Map Vision's website for more information. 

About Omar Zahraoui

Omar Zahraoui, Principal at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC), is a seniors housing research professional with expertise in providing quantitative analysis and insights on seniors housing & care market data; building new products and reporting capabilities, including dashboards and proformas for clients and internal stakeholders; and implementing new processes and data solutions. Prior to his current role, Zahraoui worked as a data analyst, at Calpine Corporation, supporting the development of new-business strategy initiatives, analyzing sales and financial data, and developing statistical modeling of consumers’ behaviors to drive business performance. Zahraoui holds a Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration with concentrations in Finance and Management, a Master in Corporate Finance from IAE Lyon School of Management at Jean Moulin Lyon III University in France, and a Master of Science in Management Information Systems and Data Analytics from Pace University.

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