Texas is no stranger to seniors housing. Of the 140 markets tracked by the NIC MAP® Data Service (NIC MAP), 6 are in Texas: Austin, Dallas/Fort Worth, El Paso, Houston, McAllen, and San Antonio. Two of those are among the largest metro areas in the nation. In this blog post, I give you an analysis of Texas’ seniors housing market and several key takeaways about its performance. Takeaway #1: Population and Job Growth Texas’ population is on the rise, and the state’s larger metropolitan areas are “growth markets.” Pure growth (both population and employment) in addition to pro-growth attitudes and regulations, land availability, and relatively affordable costs of living and doing business have stoked development in many of the urban areas of Texas.
It may be counterintuitive, but collaboration with enterprises outside the real estate sector such as chronic and transitional care management, homecare, and care management technology services could be the key to unlock added value for seniors housing and care organizations. New care delivery models for frail seniors are emerging that integrate health and supportive services which could improve health care outcomes while reducing costs, presenting a great opportunity for providers, operators, and investors – and the seniors they serve. This emerging trend was discussed during a Feb. 22 webinar, hosted by NIC’s Bob Kramer. He was joined by consultant Anne Tumlinson, who presented the findings of her recent research on collaboration opportunities that create value.
This post is a follow-up to last month’s transactions data blog post, providing updated data for the fourth quarter of 2016. Volume and Deals Closed Property sales transactions volume for seniors housing and care in 2016 registered $14.4 billion, with $7.8 billion in seniors housing and $6.6 billion in nursing care. Total annual volume was down 34% from 2015’s $21.8 billion, and down 25% from 2014, when volume totaled $19.0 billion. As stated in the initial blog last month, 2016 started out as a tumultuous year in the capital markets. The significant increase in cost of capital most likely delayed the finalization of some deals, as we did not see the strong bounce back in deal volume in the second quarter as we had seen the past couple of years. Only $2.6 billion closed in the second quarter of 2016 after a relatively strong first quarter of $4.3 billion.
In the first major release of employment conditions under the Trump Administration, the Labor Department reported on Friday that nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 positions in January, above the consensus 175,000 estimate. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised down from 204,000 to 164,000, and the change for December was revised up from 156,000 to 157,000. With these revisions, employment gains in November and December combined were 39,000 lower than previously reported. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.