Senior Housing Stabilized Occupancy Will Soon Mark Tenth Quarter of Positive Growth

• Senior housing stabilized occupancy will soon mark its tenth quarter of positive growth, the longest period of uninterrupted gains since NIC and NIC MAP Vision began reporting the data in 2005. 
• Compared to pre-pandemic times, the year-over-year inventory growth has remained relatively modest, with rates for independent living hovering around 1.0% to 1.7% since October 2021 and for AL since June 2022. This subdued pace is partly due to fewer construction starts and extended durations of project deliveries in recent years.  

According to intra-quarterly NIC MAP® data released by NIC MAP Vision, the senior housing stabilized occupancy rate for the NIC MAP Primary Markets increased to 86.1% in the November 2023 reporting period, up 0.1 percentage points (pps) from October 2023 and 0.6pps from September 2023, on three-month rolling basis. From its pandemic record low of 80.2% in June 2021, senior housing stabilized occupancy increased by 5.9pps but remained 3.2pps below pre-pandemic March 2020 levels of 89.3%.  

By Majority Property Type. At 87.4%, the stabilized occupancy rate for majority independent living (IL) properties for the NIC MAP Primary Markets increased by 0.2pps from October 2023 and 0.5pps from September 2023, on a three-month rolling basis, but remained 3.7pps below March 2020 levels. For majority assisted living properties (AL), the stabilized occupancy rate for the NIC MAP Primary Markets was up 0.1pps to 84.8% from October 2023 and 0.7pps from September 2023 but still 2.5pps below March 2020 levels.   

Inventory Growth. From year-earlier levels, the inventory of IL in the NIC MAP Primary Markets increased by 1.4% or 5,023 units in the November 2023 reporting period, 0.3pps lower than that of AL (1.7%).  

Compared to pre-pandemic times, the year-over-year inventory growth has remained relatively modest, with rates for IL hovering around 1.0% to 1.7% since October 2021 and for AL since June 2022. This subdued pace is partly due to fewer construction starts and extended durations of project deliveries in recent years.  

Stabilized Occupancy Recovery Across Select Metropolitan Markets. The stabilized occupancy rate for majority independent living properties increased or remained stable in 24 of the 31 Primary Markets in the November 2023 reporting period compared with October 2023. At 88.7%, Portland independent living stabilized occupancy saw the largest increase, up 0.9pps from October 2023. Cincinnati independent living stabilized occupancy fell by 1.2pps in November 2023 to 86.6%, marking the largest decline from October 2023.  

In November 2023, Boston, Baltimore, Minneapolis, Pittsburgh, San Jose, and Washington, DC reported relatively higher IL stabilized occupancy rates – at or exceeding the 90.0% mark.  

For majority assisted living properties, the stabilized occupancy rate increased or remained stable in 26 of the 31 Primary Markets in November 2023. At 84.2%, Seattle assisted living stabilized occupancy saw the largest increase, up 1.0pps from October 2023. The AL stabilized occupancy rate in Chicago had the largest decline and fell 1.3pps from October 2023 to 82.4%.  

Portland and Tampa reported the highest AL stabilized occupancy rates among the Primary Markets at 90.6% and 90.0%, respectively.  

Keep track of the timely review of the sector’s market fundamentals and trends. The NIC Intra-Quarterly Snapshot monthly publication, available for complimentary download on our website, continues to provide a powerful and closely watched means to stay ahead of industry trends.  

The December 2023 Intra-Quarterly Snapshot report will be released on our website on Thursday, January 4, 2024, at 4:30 pm.    

Interested in learning more about NIC MAP Intra-Quarterly data? To learn more about NIC MAP Vision data, schedule a meeting with a product expert today.