Economic Trends | Market Trends | Seniors Housing
By: Jane Adler | October 18, 2019
Supply follows demand. Or that’s how the thinking goes. So it makes sense that aging baby boomers—76 million Americans—represent a huge opportunity for the seniors housing industry. After all, they’ll need an age-appropriate place to live.
By: Beth Burnham Mace | October 04, 2019
The Labor Department reported that there were 136,000 jobs added in September, below the consensus estimate of 145,000. For the nine months through September, the average monthly increase in total employment has been 161,000, below the average monthly gain of 223,000 in 2018 (note that this will likely be revised down based on the recent preliminary benchmark revision estimate). Health care added 39,000 jobs, in line with its average monthly gain over the past 12 months. Revisions added 45,000 to the prior two months. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 7,000 from 159,000 to 166,000 and the change for August was revised up by 38,000 from 130,000 to 168,000. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. The September jobs report is important to the Federal Reserve and analysts because it is the first major piece of data for the fourth quarter. While not entirely consistent, data through the third quarter suggest that both the global and national economies are slowing. Indeed, the U.S. manufacturing sector is weakening as evidenced by a contraction for the second consecutive month in September in U.S. factory activity to its lowest level since June 2009. Expectations for GDP growth in the fourth quarter have also slipped to less than 2%. Global trade is slowing, and business investment is weakening due to mounting concerns about trade-related weakness associated with rising tariffs and geopolitical strife around the world. In fact, the Fed lowered interest rates on July 31st for the first time since 2008 and then again at its September 18th FOMC meeting as it reacted preemptively to concerns of a potential economic slowdown. The fed funds rate is now targeted at a range of 1.75% to 2.00%, down 25 basis points from its prior target range. Until July and since late 2015, the Federal Reserve had been gradually raising rates following six years of virtually 0% interest rates (2009 through 2015). The August unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%. The last time the rate was this low was 50 years ago in December 1969. A broader measure of unemployment, which includes those who are working part time but would prefer full-time jobs and those that they have given up searching—the U-6 unemployment rate—fell to 6.9% from 7.2%.
Economic Trends | Seniors Housing
By: Beth Burnham Mace and Anne Standish | September 26, 2019
A frequent question NIC receives is how much seniors housing will be needed for tomorrow’s aging baby boomers. Using the most recent U.S. Census population projections, NIC has estimated the number of seniors housing units that will be needed through 2040. Since projections are as much art as they are science, we have also created a few scenarios that project needed new supply based on different penetration rates and different household age cohorts.
Economic Trends | Seniors Housing | Workforce
By: NIC | September 18, 2019
With record attendance, the 2019 NIC Fall Conference in Chicago last week brought together more than 3,300 participants for three days of networking, educational sessions, receptions, and high-profile speakers such as former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Programming focused on current market trends and innovations as well as how to best address the disruptions facing the industry. Experts provided insights into effective operational strategies as well as changing capital flows and deal structures.
