We are all well-aware of the demographic trends unfolding in the U.S. In 2025, the first Baby Boomers will turn 80. Are we prepared for the implications of the aging population and is there enough supply to meet the demand for senior housing & care in the years ahead? Calculations by NIC MAP Vision project the need for an additional 200,000 senior housing units by 2025.
To maintain the current market penetration rates in the senior housing sector, we will need significant near-term growth in the senior housing inventory. When looking at current penetration rates among the 80+ age group, NIC MAP data predicts a need for 156,000 additional senior housing units by 2025, 549,000 additional units by 2028, and 806,000 additional units by 2030. With record-low construction starts observed in 2023, the projected gap between available and needed senior housing units will be significant. Whether looking at the 75+ or 80+ population, this pattern emerges.
When looking at the amount of capital that will be needed to support this population growth in inventory, by 2030, an industry-wide investment of $400 billion will be needed to complete the required new development to meet the anticipated demand. Given the current pace of new development, it is estimated that only 40% of that investment need is currently on-pace to be fulfilled.
To read the full report and understand peak years for projected demand and specifics on anticipated inventory shortfalls, visit the NIC MAP Vision blog here.