We frequently receive questions about the relationships between demographic trends and seniors housing demand at NIC and this commentary briefly addresses the topic. The chart below depicts the annual growth rates of three U.S. population age cohorts—(1) persons aged 75 - 81, (2) persons aged 82 – 86 and (3) persons aged 87 plus for the period beginning in 2012 and ending in 2030. The chart uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2012 Middle Series projections for the growth rates of these three cohorts.
The 25th NIC National Conference will open with Congressmen John Delaney, MD (D) and Jim Renacci, OH (R). Don’t miss the opportunity to hear from two leading members of Congress, who have a long history, experience and expertise in seniors housing and understand the challenges facing the sector. This will be a spirited discussion on key issues including: how changes to the political landscape could affect the future of the senior care sector how to improve outcomes and control costs with changes to Medicare and Medicaid affordable middle-income seniors housing steps the government should or shouldn’t take to encourage private sector initiatives so that most boomers will not have to spend down to Medicaid to meet their long-term care needs
For the first time during the recovery, seniors housing experienced a sizeable rate of inventory growth, which surpassed absorption and caused occupancy to slip 20 basis points during the quarter. During the second quarter, inventory grew at a 2.7% annual rate, its fastest rate of growth since the second quarter of 2009 when inventory grew at a 3.9% annual rate. In the previous 22 quarters, spanning back to the fourth quarter of 2009, inventory growth never exceeded a 2.0% annual rate. After recording its weakest reading since the height of the recession during the first quarter of 2015, absorption rebounded to a rate more reminiscent of what we’ve observed over the past few years. During the second quarter of 2015, absorption came in at an annual rate of 1.9%, up significantly from 0.2% during the first quarter. While it represented acceleration from the first quarter, it still was on the weaker side of where absorption rates have trended since mid-2013.